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ReturnIndia May Receive `Below Normal' Rainfall This Year
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PublishDate：
2006-04-29 14:53:00
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April 24 (Bloomberg) -- India's monsoon rainfall will probably be 7 percent below average this year, the nation's weather agency said. That may still be enough to increase growth in farm output, economist Subir Gokarn said.
Rainfall will be 93 percent of the average between 1941 and 1990, Bhukan Lal, director general at the India Meteorological Department, said today. The government's forecaster failed to predict below-normal monsoons in two of the past four years.
The four-month rains, borne by tropical winds from the Indian Ocean starting each June, water crops that account for a fifth of India's $665 billion economy. Lower rainfall this monsoon season may not hamper farm output, said Gokarn, chief economist at Crisil Ltd., Standard & Poor's local unit.
``There's nothing to panic about,'' Gokarn said today by telephone from Mumbai. ``The forecast is within the range of normality. Seven percent variation is small and is not enough to form a judgment about a slowdown in agriculture.''
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wants to quicken economic growth to 10 percent a year over the next decade, from an average 8 percent in the three years ended March 31, and is counting on boosting farm production to fuel the expansion.
A bigger harvest helps raise incomes among the 700 million Indians who live in the countryside, spurring demand for goods such as televisions, refrigerators and cars. Higher output also reduces the need to import wheat, sugar and vegetable oils.
Soaps, Cigarettes
The weather bureau will forecast the onset of the monsoon season by middle of May and update today's estimate in the first week of July, it said. The rainy season typically begins June 1.
Shares of Hindustan Lever Ltd., India's biggest consumer- products company, rose 0.2 percent to 285.45 rupees at the close of trading in Mumbai even as the benchmark Sensitive index fell 1 percent. Lever's network helps it reach more than 250 million people living in villages and the country's biggest cities and towns. ITC Ltd., which sells seven of every 10 cigarettes in India, gained 1.5 percent to 203 rupees.
India's food grain production may rise 2.3 percent to 209 million tons in the year ending June 30 after normal rains in 2005 boosted planting, the Finance Ministry said Feb. 27. Farm output must grow as much as 4 percent every year for the economy to expand at twice that pace, according to the government.
Patchy Record
India's dependence on agriculture means that a bad monsoon can slow economic growth. In 2003, India had the best rainfall in five years, helping the economy grow 8.5 percent in the year ended March 2004, the most since 1989. Only China grew faster among major economies. In 2004, rains were the second-lowest in at least 17 years, and growth slowed to 6.9 percent.
Last year, rainfall was normal, as predicted, which helped the economy grow 8.1 percent in the year ended March.
The weather office has had a patchy forecasting record in recent years.
It forecast ``absolutely'' normal rains for 2004. The monsoon turned out to be 13 percent below normal. In 2002, it forecast ``normal rainfall'' and India had its worst drought since 1987, paring economic growth to a decade-low of 4 percent in the fiscal year.
The weather agency considers rainfall to be normal if it's 2 percent more or less than the long-term mean. Actual rainfall can be 5 percent more or less than forecast. The predictions are for an all-India average. The bureau in 2004 changed the methods it uses to forecast the monsoon rains.
Rainfall will be 93 percent of the average between 1941 and 1990, Bhukan Lal, director general at the India Meteorological Department, said today. The government's forecaster failed to predict below-normal monsoons in two of the past four years.
The four-month rains, borne by tropical winds from the Indian Ocean starting each June, water crops that account for a fifth of India's $665 billion economy. Lower rainfall this monsoon season may not hamper farm output, said Gokarn, chief economist at Crisil Ltd., Standard & Poor's local unit.
``There's nothing to panic about,'' Gokarn said today by telephone from Mumbai. ``The forecast is within the range of normality. Seven percent variation is small and is not enough to form a judgment about a slowdown in agriculture.''
Prime Minister Manmohan Singh wants to quicken economic growth to 10 percent a year over the next decade, from an average 8 percent in the three years ended March 31, and is counting on boosting farm production to fuel the expansion.
A bigger harvest helps raise incomes among the 700 million Indians who live in the countryside, spurring demand for goods such as televisions, refrigerators and cars. Higher output also reduces the need to import wheat, sugar and vegetable oils.
Soaps, Cigarettes
The weather bureau will forecast the onset of the monsoon season by middle of May and update today's estimate in the first week of July, it said. The rainy season typically begins June 1.
Shares of Hindustan Lever Ltd., India's biggest consumer- products company, rose 0.2 percent to 285.45 rupees at the close of trading in Mumbai even as the benchmark Sensitive index fell 1 percent. Lever's network helps it reach more than 250 million people living in villages and the country's biggest cities and towns. ITC Ltd., which sells seven of every 10 cigarettes in India, gained 1.5 percent to 203 rupees.
India's food grain production may rise 2.3 percent to 209 million tons in the year ending June 30 after normal rains in 2005 boosted planting, the Finance Ministry said Feb. 27. Farm output must grow as much as 4 percent every year for the economy to expand at twice that pace, according to the government.
Patchy Record
India's dependence on agriculture means that a bad monsoon can slow economic growth. In 2003, India had the best rainfall in five years, helping the economy grow 8.5 percent in the year ended March 2004, the most since 1989. Only China grew faster among major economies. In 2004, rains were the second-lowest in at least 17 years, and growth slowed to 6.9 percent.
Last year, rainfall was normal, as predicted, which helped the economy grow 8.1 percent in the year ended March.
The weather office has had a patchy forecasting record in recent years.
It forecast ``absolutely'' normal rains for 2004. The monsoon turned out to be 13 percent below normal. In 2002, it forecast ``normal rainfall'' and India had its worst drought since 1987, paring economic growth to a decade-low of 4 percent in the fiscal year.
The weather agency considers rainfall to be normal if it's 2 percent more or less than the long-term mean. Actual rainfall can be 5 percent more or less than forecast. The predictions are for an all-India average. The bureau in 2004 changed the methods it uses to forecast the monsoon rains.
