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ReturnSURESH MEHTA ANALYSIS(4)--Weekly review of indian market (Till Sep 24)
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admin
PublishDate：
2005-09-26 13:18:00
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475
(BY SURESH MEHTA)
Raw silk! Raw silk! We have witnessed some major changes in india for raw silk imports, with the enhancement of the assessment price to usd 22 the import cost to indian traders increases to about usd 1.5. The local market responded to it and saw a increase from rs 1310 to rs 1370 and finally settled at rs 1330 today, absorbing a part of the increase, further as Cchinese quotations also went up we have to see the next week to see how much the market will really absorb the cost increase.
The advantage of this new policy is that chinese exporters need not worry about anti dumping and csb retesting as it becomes unapplicable at usd 22 and above. This will also generate new importers entering the market and help in maintaining a steady and stable market in terms of price , demand for raw silk and so the bottomline again is 2005 belongs to raw silk only.
The fear of indian importers is still persistent regarding the prices of raw silk in the coming months , however with the data and our analysis we can ascertain that raw silk may not go below usd 24 cif for this year .
Finally it is the guangzhou fair which will be the turning point for raw silk and i think the deciding factor in the trend for the coming months of 2005 .
Tussah silk was good in the early of this week but has again weakened at the weekend . However it has finally settled at rs 1350 up by 20 cents from last week , with new offers form china at higher levels i think this is the start of the increase expected for past few weeks , reports state that the tussah crop is very less this year and this may help in the increase also , the local market expects tussah to reach usd 26 and above or even usd 27 this year , lets hope it moves with the expectation .
Dupion really has a bad time this year , with little interest shown in new orders by trader importers it is only the indian exporters who are buying little quantity and the coming months also do not look promising so far , only a miracle or shortage can help it but with offers flooding from china it seems there is surplus cargo in both countries and to absorb that it may need another 3- 4months to become stable .
Further the issue of 8% extra import duty for dupion has again been brought up and if this is implemented then god help dupion silk yarn , the best alternative for chinese producers is to reduce production and make the cargo rectify the supply demand chain
The future idea
The coming autumn holidays in china from oct 1st , followed by the holidays of silk factories in india for dussehra from oct 11th -oct18th may put the importers on a wait and watch mode till the guangzhou fair , enhancing the importance of the fair to decide the future trend . Even though we see very little business during the fair it may be november before we can see real buying from india . So the quotes during the fair will play a major role and till then all chinese exporters and indian importers will be on the swords edge .i expect the fair to be the turning point for the future price trend . So finally i can say that now the ball is in china's court to decide the future as they want.
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
open market -prices - bangalore - chinese yarn
date : SEP24 2005
mulberry raw silk 20/22 3/4 a
RS 1330.00
dupion silk yarn 100/120
RS: 1040.00 - NORMAL MILLS
RS 1090.00 - TOP MILLS
tussah silk yarn 33/37
RS 1340.00
thrown silk 20/22 2/3 ply s300,S330,S360
RS 1370.00
organzine 2 ply z800/s700
RS - 1470.00
NOTE : PRICE ARE IN INDIAN RUPPEES/ KG
PRICE ARE INCLUSIVE OF IMPORT DUTY BUT EXCLUSIVE OF VAT IF ANY
Raw silk! Raw silk! We have witnessed some major changes in india for raw silk imports, with the enhancement of the assessment price to usd 22 the import cost to indian traders increases to about usd 1.5. The local market responded to it and saw a increase from rs 1310 to rs 1370 and finally settled at rs 1330 today, absorbing a part of the increase, further as Cchinese quotations also went up we have to see the next week to see how much the market will really absorb the cost increase.
The advantage of this new policy is that chinese exporters need not worry about anti dumping and csb retesting as it becomes unapplicable at usd 22 and above. This will also generate new importers entering the market and help in maintaining a steady and stable market in terms of price , demand for raw silk and so the bottomline again is 2005 belongs to raw silk only.
The fear of indian importers is still persistent regarding the prices of raw silk in the coming months , however with the data and our analysis we can ascertain that raw silk may not go below usd 24 cif for this year .
Finally it is the guangzhou fair which will be the turning point for raw silk and i think the deciding factor in the trend for the coming months of 2005 .
Tussah silk was good in the early of this week but has again weakened at the weekend . However it has finally settled at rs 1350 up by 20 cents from last week , with new offers form china at higher levels i think this is the start of the increase expected for past few weeks , reports state that the tussah crop is very less this year and this may help in the increase also , the local market expects tussah to reach usd 26 and above or even usd 27 this year , lets hope it moves with the expectation .
Dupion really has a bad time this year , with little interest shown in new orders by trader importers it is only the indian exporters who are buying little quantity and the coming months also do not look promising so far , only a miracle or shortage can help it but with offers flooding from china it seems there is surplus cargo in both countries and to absorb that it may need another 3- 4months to become stable .
Further the issue of 8% extra import duty for dupion has again been brought up and if this is implemented then god help dupion silk yarn , the best alternative for chinese producers is to reduce production and make the cargo rectify the supply demand chain
The future idea
The coming autumn holidays in china from oct 1st , followed by the holidays of silk factories in india for dussehra from oct 11th -oct18th may put the importers on a wait and watch mode till the guangzhou fair , enhancing the importance of the fair to decide the future trend . Even though we see very little business during the fair it may be november before we can see real buying from india . So the quotes during the fair will play a major role and till then all chinese exporters and indian importers will be on the swords edge .i expect the fair to be the turning point for the future price trend . So finally i can say that now the ball is in china's court to decide the future as they want.
WHOLESALE PRICE INDEX
open market -prices - bangalore - chinese yarn
date : SEP24 2005
mulberry raw silk 20/22 3/4 a
RS 1330.00
dupion silk yarn 100/120
RS: 1040.00 - NORMAL MILLS
RS 1090.00 - TOP MILLS
tussah silk yarn 33/37
RS 1340.00
thrown silk 20/22 2/3 ply s300,S330,S360
RS 1370.00
organzine 2 ply z800/s700
RS - 1470.00
NOTE : PRICE ARE IN INDIAN RUPPEES/ KG
PRICE ARE INCLUSIVE OF IMPORT DUTY BUT EXCLUSIVE OF VAT IF ANY
